METHODS OF FORECASTING GRAIN CROP YIELD INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INFLUENCE OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN THE INFORMATION-ANALYTICAL SUBSYSTEM

Abstract

Forecasting crop yields is one of the key challenges for the agricultural sector, especially in the context of a changing climate and unstable weather conditions. Kazakhstan, possessing significant territories suitable for growing grain crops, faces many challenges related to the effective management of agricultural activities. In this regard, yield forecasting becomes an integral part of planning and decision-making processes in agriculture. Information and analytical subsystems that integrate yield forecasting methods allow agribusinesses to estimate future production more accurately, minimise risks associated with climate change and optimise resource use. An important component of such systems is the consideration of weather conditions, as weather factors have a direct impact on crop growth and development. The purpose of this article is to develop and evaluate modern methods of forecasting grain yields taking into account the influence of weather conditions, as well as their integration into information-analytical subsystems to improve the accuracy of agricultural forecasting. To achieve this goal, the article addresses the following tasks: to analyse existing methods of yield forecasting and identify their advantages and disadvantages, to develop forecasting models, including machine learning methods such as gradient bousting and recurrent neural networks, to validate the developed models on the basis of historical data using cross-validation methods, to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methods and compare them with basic models such as linear regression and simple average, to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methods and to compare them with the basic models such as linear regression and simple average. This article reviews modern methods of forecasting grain crop yields in Kazakhstan, as well as technologies used in information-analytical subsystems. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the influence of meteorological conditions on yields and the development of models that take this factor into account. The presented review and research results are aimed at improving the existing approaches to the management of agricultural processes under conditions of growing uncertainty caused by climate change. The article explores an important scientific task related to the development of methods for step-by-step forecasting of agrometeorological factors and grain yields, relying on the principle of analogy.