FORECASTING AND OPTIMIZATION OF CATALYTIC CRACKING UNIT OPERATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF FUZZY INFORMATION

Abstract

This paper discusses the application of nonlinear regression to forecast and optimize the operation of catalytic cracking units under conditions of fuzzy information. Catalytic cracking is a crucial process in oil refining that produces high-quality gasoline and other light hydrocarbon products. However, the complexity of the process and the uncertainty of initial data complicate the modeling and optimization of plant operations. To address this issue, a nonlinear regression method is proposed that accommodates the fuzziness of input and output parameters described by linguistic variables. The methodology includes the collection and formalization of expert knowledge, the construction of fuzzy models, and their integration into the process control system. Forecasting is performed by creating regression models that describe the relationships between operational parameters and product quality characteristics. The paper presents a procedure for developing and applying nonlinear regression models, describes algorithms for synthesizing linguistic models, and provides examples of their use to optimize the operation of catalytic cracking units. The modeling results demonstrate the high adequacy and accuracy of the proposed method, as well as its advantages over traditional approaches in conditions of uncertainty and data scarcity. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development and testing of advanced nonlinear regression models adapted for analyzing and optimizing catalytic cracking processes based on fuzzy data. These methods take into account the specificity and uncertainty of process data, improving the accuracy and reliability of forecasts, which facilitates more effective management of production processes in the petrochemical industry. The main reason for conducting this study is the need to improve the control of oil refining processes, particularly catalytic cracking, which plays an important role in producing high-quality gasoline. The complexity of this process and the presence of fuzzy information caused by fuzzy initial data require the development of new modeling and optimization methods.

Existing traditional models based on deterministic methods are often insufficient under uncertainty. This leads to a decrease in the accuracy of process control, which can negatively affect the quality of the final product and production efficiency. The use of nonlinear regression in combination with fuzzy logic is a more flexible and adaptive approach that allows you to take into account the fuzziness and uncertainty of data and use expert knowledge to build models that match the actual operating conditions of the units. Thus, this study aims to solve the key problems associated with data uncertainty and the complexity of the catalytic cracking process, which will improve the accuracy of forecasting and optimization of the units. The main contribution is creating a model that uses nonlinear regression methods in combination with fuzzy logic. This allows uncertainty in input data (such as reactor temperature or pressure) to be effectively considered and processed to improve gasoline and other product yield forecasts. It is shown that using nonlinear regression combined with fuzzy logic significantly improves the management of technological processes, increases the output and quality of products, and reduces production costs. The conclusion of the paper discusses the prospects for further development of the methodology and its application to solve similar tasks in other areas of chemical technology.